Euro Area and World Demand

Transitive Relation?

1. Germany GDP is one third of the Euro Area GDP
2. German exporters account for the robust growth of the German economy (ft.com)
3. Will the Euro Area slow down after the sharp reduction of the US demand and the high value of the euro?

Is there any similarity with the US downturn in 2001? If so

• could history have helped in predicting pass-through from the US?
• is the US likely to mantain its driving force in the future? For instance, see recent comments on the overtaking of the euro (J. Frankel, P. Krugman, Bordo and James)

Crude Oil and Principles

An off-the-shelf Story about Scarcity of Natural Resources

This post collects references about recent developments in commodity prices both fuel and non-fuel ones.

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
2. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wttstus1w.htm (US Stocks of Petroleum)
3. http://www.nber.org/papers/w12713 (Jeffrey Frankel's paper)
4. 
   

Financial Stability and Supervision

Dear Unknow Reader:

here some references on payment systems, financial supervision etc.

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_I


• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_II


• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_requirement

Basel II:

Advocates of Basel II believe that such an international standard can help protect the international financial system from the types of problems that might arise should a major bank or a series of banks collapse. In practice, Basel II attempts to accomplish this by setting up rigorous risk and capital management requirements designed to ensure that a bank holds capital reserves appropriate to the risk the bank exposes itself to through its lending and investment practices. Generally speaking, these rules mean that the greater risk to which the bank is exposed, the greater the amount of capital the bank needs to hold to safeguard its solvency and overall economic stability

The Three Pillars:

1. Minimum Capital Requirements (addressing risk: credit, market, operational)


2. Supervisory Review


3. Market Discipline

The EU adoption of the Basel II Accords.

- Regulatory Capital

Red-Meat and Climate Change

Flatulent Cows, China and Global Warming

Cows around the world have a significant impact on global warming (Times): it's about 14% of total gas emission and methane, the one cows are concerned with, has 23 times the warming potential than CO2.

The highest per capita red-meat consumers are New Zealand, Uruguay, Australia, Argentina, and the United States. Despite high production, India ranks low in consumption because of religious prohibitions. Generally, as countries become more industrialized and people's incomes improve, per capita consumption of red-meat increases (Enc. Britannica).

This is what happens in China nowadays (People.com.cn):

Chinese average meat consumption will increase by 20 kg or more in the years to come, as the living standard improves and consumption patterns change, China Quality Daily reported Monday.
The paper, quoting Deng Fujiang, deputy director of China Meat Association (CMA), said, "This target is attainable."
At present, a rural Chinese consumes 50 grams of meat per day, and the figure for an urban citizen is less than 100 grams, the paper said.
The goal is to let the average Chinese eat 100 grams of meat, or more, every day in the near future, said Pan Yaoguo, a researcher with the State Council's Development Research Institute.
Statistics from the CMA showed that China's total meat output came to 72.5 million tons in 2004, with pork output accounting for 47 percent of the world's total.
China has become the world's biggest meat producer since 1992 and its meat market share has kept rising over the past decade.
However, China's per capita meat consumption is less than 53 kg now, compared with the 70-130 kg consumed by citizens in developed countries.
Over the past years, China's meat consumption saw a marked change, with consumers expanding from higher-income groups in large cities and developed areas to low income people in rural areas.
CMA' statistics said China now has 100 modern pig, cow and poultry slaughtering enterprises and five egg products processing companies with advanced production lines introduced from abroad.

In sum, meat consumption is under threat. I don't want China stops eating red-meat, but more simply to make anyone more conscious about the risk of unsustainable use of resources on Earth.
It thus pushes for meat consumption in the developed countries which should help other developing countries to become more responsible about their domestic policy.


Agostino

(I am not a vegetarian)